The San Diego Union-Tribune reported yesterday that it is estimated that up to 42.6% of the properties in San Diego County are “underwater,” that is, are worth less than the mortgage debt held against them. This is an estimate because it is based on theoretical home values in the neighborhoods. This is a common phenomenon throughout the country, but San Diego is said to be 12th among areas with populations over one million in the frequency of the underwater effect.
There is some controversy as to whether this will continue to get worse or will abate. Median prices in the county have risen from $280,000 in January to $320,000 in July, suggesting that the situation will improve.
When homes experience the “underwater” effect, the owners have several choices: They can continue to pay the mortgage if they are financially able, in the hope that the price of their home will rise. They can abandon their home and not pay the mortgage, but this has a major adverse effect on their credit. Or they can sell the home “short,” that is, for less than the debt against it, with the bank agreeing to accept the proceeds in lieu of full payoff of the debt, which has much less adverse effect on their credit.
According to local experts, people are often unaware of the market value of their home if they are not otherwise needing to sell, and they are very reluctant to give up their homes unless forced to by circumstances such as job loss, despite the loss in market value.
Short selling is often the best answer, and short sales have recently resulted in multiple offers, sometimes above the asking price.